Can policymakers trust forecasters?

Arb is my research consultancy. We are usually hiring.

The Institute for Progress just published our elaboration on our previous work on experts vs amateur forecasters.

• We cut a bunch of introductory material which you can see here.
• Most of the goodness is hidden in the links, like the literature review which compares each pair of forecasting methods.
• See also this list of forecasting platforms open to you.